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25 de mayo de 2005

Al menos cinco años para pacificar Irak

It could take at least five years before Iraqi forces are strong enough to impose law and order on the country, the International Institute of Strategic Studies warned yesterday.

The thinktank's report said that Iraq had become a valuable recruiting ground for al-Qaida, and Iraqi forces were nowhere near close to matching the insurgency.

John Chipman, IISS director, said the Iraqi security forces faced a "huge task" and the continuing ability of the insurgents to inflict mass casualties "must cast doubt on US plans to redeploy American troops and eventually reduce their numbers".

(...)



The report said that, on balance, US policy over the past year had been effective in emboldening regional players in the Middle East and the Gulf to rally against rogue states.

But it warned that the inspirational effect of the intervention in Iraq on Islamist terrorism was "the proverbial elephant in the living room. From al-Qaida's point of view, [President] Bush's Iraq policies have arguably produced a confluence of propitious circumstances: a strategically bogged down America, hated by much of the Islamic world, and regarded warily even by its allies".
Interesante estudio que comentan en The Guardian. La primera conclusión, de dar credibilidad a este estudio -desconozco como está hecho- es que las tropas americanas tendrán que seguir mucho tiempo en Irak, sea a través de la acción directa, sea a través de bases permanentes de apoyo. Lástima no conocer los planes de la administración Bush al respecto.

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