Based on this, my tentative conclusion is that the "moral values" vote is a red herring. It played no bigger a role this year than in 2000.
Terrorism played a bigger role, mostly by being a more important issue to a lot more people. Bush's level of support among people who based their vote primarily on world affairs increased only modestly.
And that good old mainstay the economy was the most important of all. Compared to 2000, fewer people personally think they're doing better but more people believe the economy is in good shape anyway. And Bush was overwhelmingly successful in convincing those people that his policies deserved the credit.
Ni nos falta razón, ni nos sobra razón
8 de noviembre de 2004
Exit polls 2000-2004
Kevin Drum ha decidido centrar su análisis de las elecciones en las Exit Polls (encuestas a pié de urna) comparándolas con las del año 2000, y ésta es su conclusión:
Por Sergio a las 18:55